The birth rate...

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The birth rate...

Postby Yessica » 27 Sep 2013, 06:48

I noticed so many of you mention this topic on other threads. Time for a new thread.

Do you think that the low birth rates in Western countries are a good thing (say because of the environment) or a bad thing?

As for me. My husband and me are planning to have a big family, but I do think that a low birth rate does not neccessarily have to be a bad thing.
I like rural ways more than city ways and like the nature and traveling to sparely populated areas in Sweden was great.

On the other hand I think it is a bad thing if a people contracepts itself out of existence.

I like what Keith said.

Keith wrote:I like the idea that we are part of a genetic and cultural river and that we take up the baton from our parents and grandparents, who stand downstream from us, and hand it on to our children and grandchildren who stand somewhere in the mist upstream of us.

If you do not have children (and also do not make other efforts to hand over the batton) this feels like a statement that nothing your ancestors gave you is any good. It is not worth to survive the time.

I do not think that our culture is superior to others. If any culture is superior it is most likely to be found in East Asia to my mind (lowest crime rates, most value placed on education and so on... Oh and a nearly robot-like perfection)...
but our culture is OURS. German romance for example might not be good for anything other than dragging people down... still I would not like to see it lost. Who would sing sad songs about the Loreley after that has hasppened?

A fun fact: In Europe the social group with the highest birth rate according to empiric studies is.... it is a social class.... guess which.... the gentry. Guess that this was the social class you did not even think of at all as it is so small.
In Germany for example about 1% of the population come from a marriage in which both parents are gentry.
Their birth rate is about 4,something. I forgot the exact number. If I recall that correctly I found it in "Noblesse oblige: Die Kunst, ein adliges Leben zuführen" by Christine Gräfin v. Brühl.
Now let's do some kitchen-mathematics and let's assume what will happen if current birth rates continue. In our generation there in one couple of the gentry, who will have four children, sixteen grand-children, 64 great-grandchildren and so on. On the other hand there is one non-gentry middle-class-couple who will have one child, one grand-child and one great-grand-child.

What will this be like for the gentry and what will it be like for the non-gentry? I have no idea.

Back to the topic: In which way do you think will current low birth rates influence our countries?
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Re: The birth rate...

Postby Elliott » 27 Sep 2013, 14:14

I don't want to turn this into another thread about Islam and Third World demographics taking over Western nations, but this is really the reason that I am concerned about low birth rates. It's a question of which people are going to be abundant in the future and which people are going to be rare. Surely that matters.

In Britain, Muslims and the white underclass are breeding very fast, much faster than the white middle-class. As for the gentry, I have no idea what their birth rate is but I certainly haven't heard anything about it being high.
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Re: The birth rate...

Postby Yessica » 27 Sep 2013, 16:19


I expected people to start talking about Islam :)
After all there has been so much talk about Islam and the birth rate in other threads.
Feel welcome here to discuss it if you want it.

As for me I am somewhat worried about the tendency of fundamentalist Muslims to use the womb as a weapon. Will this result in the growth of the fundamanetalist population?
It must not necessarily be like that. Sometimes children turn away from the way of their parents, but when you see how that parents brainwash their children and how the State enables them, I fear it will end like this.

In Germany, according to the German Wikipedia, the birth rate of those with college degrees is 0,9, the birthrate of those who dropped out school is 1,8 and the birth rate of Muslims 2,44. I do not always trust Wikipedia as you know but in this case my common sense tells me that numbers sound correct.
As can be seen the gentry breeds much faster. Of course that groups are not exclusive. You can be member of several of those at the same time...

I do not know anything about the birth rate of the British gentry but I would it expect to be at least somewhat higher than that of the general population. People of the gentry typically follow more old-fashioned gender roles and of course they also have a long (and sometimes proud) family tradition which they want to hand over to the next generation.

I noticed a tendency in the "new middle class" (that is how I call people who are middle class by their education and the education alone) to have few children. At the same time I noticed that people who are middle class by heritage (son of...) and may be also by education have more children. It is a pity to my mind because the "new middle class" has some of the smartest and most hard working people. They had so much to give to their kids.

Why are they like this? May be because they had to cut of themselves from their past and thus do not think about the future. They do not see themselves in any tradition.

May be because the owe so much to their school. They owe it everything. So how can they believe anything they have been taught in school to be wrong?

That would be my reading.
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Re: The birth rate...

Postby Yessica » 27 Sep 2013, 16:24

An interesting point to discuss: Is the future going to be conservative, because conservatives have more children or will the children just come up with another political opinion than their parents had?
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Re: The birth rate...

Postby Jonathan » 09 Oct 2013, 09:01

Yessica wrote:Back to the topic: In which way do you think will current low birth rates influence our countries?

I like this question. I think it touches upon a subtle truth - if you take a society and reduce the birth rate, you don't get the same society with fewer people. You get something quite different.

What changes?

First, it's not just that people have fewer children. They start having children later. This usually means they get married later, and that these marriages are less stable.

It also means that children grow up without lots of brothers and cousins. They get all the attention of their parents - too much attention. They don't help around the house a lot, because Mom and Dad can manage to cook and clean for 3 people. Young girls never see Mommy nursing a baby, which provides an example for them to imitate.

As grown-ups, they do not ask for help from brothers or cousins, nor do they repay such debts. The state replaces all of these. Elderly parents must rely on nursing homes, or the state - four children might be able to help their 80-year-old mother manage at home, but one child cannot.

People with children must constantly consider questions of right and wrong, whenever their child does something. People without children just do what feels good most of the time.

People with children must look to the future all the time. People without can live in the present.

I'm not saying that each individual in a society follows this pattern. There are plenty of people without children who think of the future and love moral questions. But take a million individuals and wait 20 years, and I think you'll notice these differences.
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Re: The birth rate...

Postby Keith » 09 Oct 2013, 13:28

I think many countries, including the two countries I live in (not simultaneously you understand), England and Japan, would benefit from a reduction in their populations. There is just no space left. I would quite happily accept a lower standard of living in return for more countryside. Even so, I don't want either the English or the Japanese to reduce their populations in relation to those of other nationalities and I certainly don't want England's shortfall to be made up by a burgeoning Muslim population.

Someone said in another thread that the Scandinavians will disappear after having multicultured themselves out of existence. I think what is more likely is that Scandinavian genes will escape to other countries that are more hospitable to them than Scandinavia itself. I think the same will happen to the English. White flight is already well under way and will probably accelerate as more and more native Britons feel resentful about their home no longer being their home. Such a feeling is easier to bear when you are in Spain, Australia or anywhere else. Once the British welfare programs start to fail there may be programs to repatriate the golden geese. Whether they will fly home or not I have no idea. I think their genes will by then have been spread around and be as hard to track down as those of ancient Etruscans and Phoenicians.
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